RAINFALL ESTIMATION FOR DROUGHT ANALYSIS USING GUMBEL’S DISTRIBUTION METHOD FOR LUCKNOW DISTRICT

S. KHAN¹, Q.S.W. ALI²*, C.J. WESLEY^3
1Department of Soil Water Land Engineering & Management, Vaugh Institute of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, 211007, India
²National Water Mission, Ministry of Jal Shakti, New Delhi, India
³Department of Centre for Geospatial Technologies, Vaugh Institute of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, 211007, India
* Corresponding Author : wamiqali.786@gmail.com

Received : 03-09-2020     Accepted : 25-09-2020     Published : 30-09-2020
Volume : 12     Issue : 18       Pages : 10214 - 10222
Int J Agr Sci 12.18 (2020):10214-10222

Keywords : Drought, Gumbel’s distribution, Standard deviation, Time series, Transplantation
Academic Editor : Dr H. V. Pandya, P. T. Patel
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Authors are thankful to Department of Soil Water Land Engineering & Management, Vaugh Institute of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, 211007, India. Authors are also thankful to Indian Meteorological Department, Lucknow Centre, C.C.S., Amausi, Lucknow
Author Contribution : All authors equally contributed.

Droughts occur when there is not enough rain for a long period of time. During the study rainfall data of fifteen years from 2001 to 2015 based on standard weeks was analyzed for Lucknow district of India. The monthly maximum rainfall at different probability levels was calculated by using Gumbel’s Probability method. The daily rainfall data series is divided into annual, seasonal, monthly, and weekly average data series. During weekly average rainfall analysis, it was observed that maximum 15 times drought occurs in 49th week while minimum of 4th times is in case of 29th week. The maximum number of surplus weeks during the fifteen years’ time was 4 and the minimum numbers of drought weeks i.e. zero were found in the 32nd and 49th standard week of the year during fifteen years’ time. The maximum number of normal weeks during the 15 years period was 9 during in the 29th week, and the minimum numbers of drought weeks i.e. zero were found in the 2nd, 12th, 15th, 21st, 41th, 44th, 45th, 46th, 47th, 48th and 49th standard week. The percentage of normal, surplus and drought months are respectively 42.22%, 10.56%, and 47.22% out of total number of months for fifteen years duration. The percentage of drought, surplus and normal years are 6.37%, 20% and 73.34% respectively according to Standard Deviation (sd). The analysis has revealed erratic distribution of precipitation during Rabi season thereby preventing the farmers to go for Rabi crops. Therefore, the irrigation must be assured for sowing Rabi crops. The monthly maximum rainfall at different probability level was calculated by Gumbel’s Distribution method. From the drought analysis, it was observed that study area is drought prone at two stages; firstly, at the beginning of the season which can cause delay in transplantation and secondly, at the beginning of the grain ripening stage, which can drastically reduce the crop yield. The annual daily maximum rainfall received at any time ranged between 1539.60 mm (maximum) to 628.11 mm (minimum) indicating a very large range of fluctuation during the period of study.

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