WINTER SEASON RAINFALL TREND ANALYSIS BY USING DISTRIBUTION-FREE STATISTICS AND LINEAR REGRESSION TECHNIQUES UNDER SOUTH GUJARAT

NEERAJ KUMAR¹*, D.D. PATEL², M.L. PATEL³, B.M. MOTE⁴, G.G. RADADIA^5
1Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Bharuch, 392 012, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, 396 450, Gujarat, India
²Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Bharuch, 392 012, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, 396 450, Gujarat, India
³Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Bharuch, 392 012, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, 396 450, Gujarat, India
⁴Directorate of Research Office, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, 396 450, Gujarat, India
⁵Department of Agricultural Engineering, N. M. College of Agriculture, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, 396 450, Gujarat, India
* Corresponding Author : neeraj34012@gmail.com

Received : 20-03-2020     Accepted : 02-06-2020     Published : 15-06-2020
Volume : 12     Issue : 11       Pages : 9896 - 9902
Int J Agr Sci 12.11 (2020):9896-9902

Keywords : Mann-Kendall trend, Sens slope, Winter season, Excess and Deficit rainfall, south Gujarat
Academic Editor : Dr Prashant Shrivastava, P. T. Patel, Ch. Myriounis, Dr Ajay Haldar
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for support this research. Authors are also thankful to Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Bharuch, 392 012, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, 396 450, Gujarat, India.
Author Contribution : All authors equally contributed

On the basis of past 115 years (1901-2015) rainfall data of five districts of south Gujarat, the Mann-Kendall trend, Sen’s slope and regression slope showed that pre monsoon rainfall at Valsad and Bharuch shows the increasing trend while, that of Dang, Surat and Navsari districts are in declining. The Mann-Kendall trend, Sen’s slope and regression slope revealed that winter season rainfall at Bharuch divulges the increasing trend while, that of Dang, Valsad, Surat and Navsari districts are in declining. Kendall’s tau values are conceding negative trend for pre global warming was observed that pre monsoon at Dang, Valsad and Navsari and positive trend was found that Bharuch and Surat districts and present global warming only Navsari district shows decline trend and remain districts are in increasing trend.

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