WEEKLY RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL IN JUNAGADH DISTRICT OF GUJARAT

P.K. PASWAN¹*, G.R. SHARMA^2
1Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat, India
²Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Polytechnic in Agricultural Engineering, Targhadia, 360023, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, India
* Corresponding Author : pappu.nk1995@gmail.com

Received : 08-02-2020     Accepted : 16-02-2020     Published : 28-02-2020
Volume : 12     Issue : 4       Pages : 9545 - 9549
Int J Agr Sci 12.4 (2020):9545-9549

Keywords : Weekly Rainfall, Markov Chain model, Onset and Withdrawal of rainfall
Academic Editor : Dr Jai P Rai, Dr Ram Suresh
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Author thankful to Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Polytechnic in Agricultural Engineering, Targhadia, 360023, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat, India
Author Contribution : All authors equally contributed

The historical rainfall data for the period of 37 years (1981-2017) of Junagadh district in Gujarat were analyzed weekly rainfall data by using Markov chain model and initial and conditional probabilities were estimated for 10 mm and 20 mm rainfall amount. The initial probability of getting 10 mm rainfall during 24th to 38th SMW is more than 50% except 25th and 26th SMW. Conditional probabilities of wet week preceded by another wet week of getting 10 mm rainfall during 23rd to 40th SMW were 40% and more. Initial probabilities of getting 20 mm rainfall during 24th to 34th SMW are more than 40% except 26th SMW. Conditional probability of wet preceded by another wet week of getting 20 mm rainfall during 24th to 39th SMW are more than 50% except 25th, 34th, and 35th SMW. Consecutive dry and wet week revealed that chances of occurrence of 10 mm and 20 mm, 2 consecutive dry and wet weeks are 10.26-38.46% ,12.82-48.72% and 17.95% to 66.67%, 12.82-53.85% from 23 to 38 SMW. 3 consecutive dry and wet weeks are 1.28-17.09%, 5.92-36.01% and 7.69-49.46% and 4.72-39.89% from 23 to 37 SMW. Onset and withdrawal of monsoon in most of the year is observed in 23 SMW and 47 SMW respectively.

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