PRICE FORECAST OF TURMERIC IN TAMIL NADU: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

M. CHINNADURAI¹, A. ANBARASSAN²*, R. SANGEETHA^3
1Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, 641003, Tamil Nadu, India
²Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, 641003, Tamil Nadu, India
³Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, 641003, Tamil Nadu, India
* Corresponding Author : anbu.arassan@gmail.com

Received : 30-08-2018     Accepted : 11-09-2018     Published : 15-09-2018
Volume : 10     Issue : 17       Pages : 7064 - 7066
Int J Agr Sci 10.17 (2018):7064-7066

Keywords : ARIMA, Seasonal indices, Price forecasting
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Author thankful to Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, 641003, Tamil Nadu, India
Author Contribution : All author equally contributed

The present study aims to analyze the marketing channel in turmeric marketing and price forecast on turmeric crop based on the time series monthly price data for the period of January, 2005 – April, 2018 for Erode regulated market in Tamil Nadu. Seasonal indices and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) model were used for analysis. The results revealed that during the month of January to March the price will prevail high. The forecasted price for turmeric during the month of May, 2018 was Rs. 6908 per quintal and will fetches Rs. 6978 per quintal during July, 2018. Compared with the actual price prevailed in the study area were Rs. 6908 per quintal during May, 2018 and Rs. 6978 per quintal during July, 2018 respectively revealing that the forecast price has the validity of 96 percent and 99 percent respectively.

1. Jayesh T. (2001) Production and Export Performance of Pepper and Cardamom in south India– An Economic Analysis, M.Sc.(Agri) thesis, Uni.Agric. Sci., Dharwad.
2. Sadesh J., Pouchepparadjou A., Anil Kuruvila, Rammohan J. and Umamaheswari L. (2007) Agricultural Situationin India. 49(5): 593-601.
3. Jose C.T. and Jayasekhar S. (2008) Agricultural Situation in India, 65(1), 135-140.
4. Sharma H.R. and Sharma R.K. (2003) Agricultural Economic Research Review,16(2), 152-170.
5. Saraswati Poudel Acharya., Basavaraja H., Kunnal L.B., Mahajanashetti S.B. and Bhat A.R.S. (2012) Karnataka Journal of Agricultural Science, 25 (4),431-436.
6. Isah Musa Ahmad, Samuel E., Makama S.A. and Kiresur V.R. (2015) Research Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, 3(2), 10-15.