STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION OF FOOD GRAINS DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN INDIA

BANJUL BHATTACHARYYA¹, SOUMIK RAY²*
¹Department of Agricultural Statistics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, 741252, West Bengal, India
²Department of Agricultural Statistics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, 741252, West Bengal, India
* Corresponding Author : raysoumik4@gmail.com

Received : 28-05-2018     Accepted : 06-06-2018     Published : 15-06-2018
Volume : 10     Issue : 11       Pages : 6200 - 6205
Int J Agr Sci 10.11 (2018):6200-6205

Keywords : Demand-supply, ARIMA, Population, Production
Academic Editor : Meena Das
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Authors are thankful to Krishi Viswavidyalaya Mohanpur, Nadia, 741252, West Bengal, India
Author Contribution : All author equally contributed

Agricultural development policies and agriculture scientist in India have aimed to reducing hunger, food insecurity, malnourishment and poverty at a rapid rate. The population of India goes to 1.32 billion, accounts for 17 per cent of world’s population. Its size, in terms of consumers, is many-times larger than the average size of rest of the countries, except China. The state of food insecurity and hunger in India is of considerable significance for the global situation. In this present study, projected population and food grains production is investigated by using ARIMA model and making decision for forecast. Demand projection is also estimated by using almost ideal demand system (AIDS). The condition of demand-supply gaps is presented under this paper. It is found that total food grains production will be increased 281.12 Mt in the year 2020 as well as the population will be 1345 million. The demand-supply scenarios present an alarming situation at present especially for pulses. The demand-supply gap for pulses is going to more adverse condition which strongly affects our food and nutritional security. Demand of pluses in 2020 will be 22.92 Mt whereas the pulses supply in that year will be 19.68 Mt. So, it is confirmed that the demand-supply gap of pulses goes in negative. So better technology, improved mechanism makes minimizing the demand-supply gap of pulses in India.

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