PROBABILITY OF RETENTION AND CHANGING DIRECTION OF EXPORT OF COFFEE FROM INDIA

M. BALAKRISHNAN¹*, K. CHANDRAN^2
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, 641 003, India
²Department of Agricultural Economics, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, 641 003, India
* Corresponding Author : kmbalakrishnan@gmail.com

Received : 28-02-2018     Accepted : 06-03-2018     Published : 15-03-2018
Volume : 10     Issue : 5       Pages : 5304 - 5306
Int J Agr Sci 10.5 (2018):5304-5306

Keywords : Probability transition matrix, Markov chain analysis
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Author thankful to Dr. K. Chandran, The Chairman, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Coimbatore. Also thankful to the Chairman of The Advisory Committee, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, 641 003 for guidance and support during research
Author Contribution : All author equally contributed

Among the plantation crops, coffee contributes significantly to the nation’s economy, in addition to earning substantial foreign exchange for the country. Indian coffee production was about 3 lakh tonnes and exports were 3,593,42 tonnes in 2017. The European Union and Russian Federation were the major importers of Indian coffee. By using Markov chain model, direction of trade and changing pattern of Indian coffee export were analyzed. Using the estimated transitional probabilities, the export of coffee to various destinations was predicted by multiplying the same with the respective market shares of the base year. The major importing countries like Italy, Germany, Russian Federation, Belgium and USA had the retention of zero percent means compared to other major importing countries unstable importers of Indian coffee.

1. Pramod Kumar, P.S. Badal and Lalith Achoth (2007) Ind.J.Agric.Mktg., 21(1), 130-137.
2. Sadavatti P.M. (2006) Ind.J.Agric.Mktg, 20(1), 11-18.
3. Suganda, et al., (2016) Business Sciences International Research Journal, 4 (1), 123-126.