MARKET CO-INTEGRATION AND CASUALTY ANALYSIS OF BARLEY IN RAJASTHAN

INDIRA¹*, R.C. KUMAWAT², HEMANT SHARMA^3
1College of Agriculture, Sri Karan Narendra Agriculture University, Jobner, Rajasthan 303328
²College of Agriculture, Sri Karan Narendra Agriculture University, Jobner, Rajasthan 303328
³Agro-Economic Research Centre AERC, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Anand, Gujarat 388120
* Corresponding Author : indurca007@gmail.com

Received : 17-11-2017     Accepted : 16-12-2017     Published : 18-12-2017
Volume : 9     Issue : 53       Pages : 4915 - 4917
Int J Agr Sci 9.53 (2017):4915-4917

Keywords : Co-integration, Causality, Barley, ECM, ADF
Academic Editor : Baliyankavita, Pasala Srinivasa Rao, Isah Musa Ahmad, Dr G. L. Meena
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Author thankful to Sri Karan Narendra Agriculture University, Jobner, Rajasthan 303328 and Aro-Economic Research Centre AERC, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Anand, Gujarat 388120
Author Contribution : All author equally contributed

The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test for barley showed that the existing data were non-stationary but their first differences were stationary. After taking first difference, all the series becomes stationary which is obvious from the fact that calculated values (-0.566811 to -4.784065) for all the markets were less than the critical value (- 4.036983) and were free from the consequence of unit root. Hence, the barley price series were integrated of the order 1. Johansen’s co-integration test for barley indicated the presence of at least five co-integration equations at 5 percent level of significance. Hence markets were having long run equilibrium relationship. Granger causality test for barley indicated the presence of bidirectional and unidirectional influences on market prices indicating the presence of long run integration among all the markets of Hanumangarh district. Public policies in Hanumangarh district could play critical roles in facilitating market integration and thereby, market efficiency through the development of agricultural market information systems and road infrastructure.

1. Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger. (1987) Econometrica, 55,251-276.
2. Dickey D.A. and Fuller W.A. (1981) Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
3. Balappa S. and Hugar L. B. (2002) Agricultural Marketing, 45 (2), 30-32.
4. Johansen S. (1988) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254
5. Johansen S. (1996) Likelihood-based inference in cointegration vector autoregressive models. (2 nd Edition) Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
6. Sharma Hemant and Burark S.S. (2016) Indian Journal of Economics and Development, 12(3), 445-452
7. Ericsson N. R. and MacKinnon J. G. (2002) Econometrics Journal, 5, pp. 285-318.
8. Mushtaq K.A.G. and Dad M. (2008) The Lahore Journal of Economics, 13, 129-138.
9. Hadzhidi A. P. and Kalitko S. A (2016) Experience of Use of Integrated Marketing Communications in Implementation of Means of Plant Protection During Rice Growing, 1046, 1063.