BENEFITS OF PRICE FORECAST TO CASTOR GROWERS IN GUJARAT

M.G. DHANDHALYA¹, HARESH CHAVDA²*, P.B. MARVIYA³, V.D. TARPARA⁴, KALPESH KUMAR^5
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat
²Department of Agricultural Economics, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat
³Department of Agricultural Economics, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat
⁴Department of Agricultural Economics, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat
⁵Institute of Agri Business Management, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, 362001, Gujarat
* Corresponding Author : harsh_genx@yahoo.co.in

Received : 09-07-2016     Accepted : 20-08-2016     Published : 30-10-2016
Volume : 8     Issue : 52       Pages : 2414 - 2416
Int J Agr Sci 8.52 (2016):2414-2416

Keywords : Forecast, ARIMA model, MAPE, ACF, PACF
Academic Editor : Dr Basa Swaminath
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : None declared
Author Contribution : None declared

The present study was undertaken to analyze the impact of price forecasts of castor released by Agriculture Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh in crop year 2013-14. Monthly time series data on wholesale prices of castor for the period 1990 to 2013 were obtained from Patan APMC for price forecast. Various time series models were applied to analyze the data. ARIMA (0,1,2) model was found the best fitted model with lowest MAPE value and hence price was forecasted using this model. Finally a market advisory was prepared and released through different mass media like news papers, voice SMS, farmers trainings and university website. To study the impact of price forecast, all the 30 farmers (targeted farmers) who attended the training conducted by AMIC of JAU, Junagadh were aware with price forecast and adopted the price forecast suggestions. Further 30 non targeted farmers selected were those who were not training participants. The price forecasted for months from March to May, 2014 was Rs. 3800 to 4300 per quintal and farmers were suggested to store castor and sell after May, 2014. On an average 2.72 ha area was operated under castor by sample farmers. An incremental income realized to the extent of Rs. 35826 per hectare by the farmers who sold their produce after May, 2014.