FORECASTING OF TEA EXPORT FROM INDIA - AN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES APPROACH

K. PADMANABAN¹*, SUPRIYA², B.S. DHEKALE³, P.K. SAHU^4
1Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi ViswaVidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
²Department of Agriculture Economics, College of Agriculture, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar - 263 145, Uttarakhand, India.
³Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi ViswaVidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
⁴Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi ViswaVidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
* Corresponding Author : padstatistics@gmail.com

Received : 07-07-2015     Accepted : 15-09-2015     Published : 01-11-2015
Volume : 7     Issue : 7       Pages : 577 - 580
Int J Agr Sci 7.7 (2015):577-580

Keywords : Single, double and winter’s exponential smoothing techniques, forecasting and export of tea
Academic Editor : Bajaj Gagan, Praveena S., Sharma R. P., Kashish Arora, Kashish Arora, Kashish Arora, Chandran K. P. Vipin, Sabbati Narasimham, Vijay Bahadur Sharma, Pradeep Mishra, Vishwajith KP, Bishal Gurung
Conflict of Interest : None declared

The export performance of tea in India has been examined using secondary data for the period from 1981 to 2010. The trend present in the export of tea was confirmed by fitting the original value with linear trend equation. Then double exponential smoothing technique (Holt’s) was applied to forecast the export of tea from India up to year 2020. The result revealed that export of tea shows the declined to the value of 30328 for the year 2020 compare to the base year value of 30387 in the year 2010.