STUDY OF INSTABILITY AND FORECASTING OF FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IN INDIA

P. MISHRA¹*, P.K. SAHU², K. PADMANABAN³, K.P. VISHWAJITH⁴, B.S. DHEKALE^5
1Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
²Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
³Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
⁴Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
⁵Department of Agriculture Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia - 741 252, WB, India.
* Corresponding Author : pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com

Received : 14-05-2015     Accepted : 18-06-2015     Published : 02-07-2015
Volume : 7     Issue : 3       Pages : 474 - 481
Int J Agr Sci 7.3 (2015):474-481

Keywords : ARIMA, Forecasting, Instability, Production
Academic Editor : Gill Harsimran Kaur, Kumar Vijay, Dr Lakshmi Hijam, Kaur G J
Conflict of Interest : None declared

For food and nutritional security, forecasting production behaviours of the major food crops play vital role. Planners should have idea about the past and likely production scenario of the major crops. In this paper attempt has been made to examine the performance of total food grains production in India and its major states during the period (1950-2009). Stability in production behavior with respect to area, production and yield of total food grains has been studied. This study also focuses on forecasting the area and production of total food grains in India using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The success of agriculture depends on many factors from formulation of policy to its implementation, availability of inputs, climatic conditions etc. In an attempt to increase forecast accuracy, the study incorporated the factors of production in the ARIMA model as auxiliary variables. The study reveals that by and large estimated figures are closer to the observed figures when different factors are included in the model. Forecasting figures worked out using the best fitted ARIMA models with and or without the incorporation of factors of production indicate that Uttar Pradesh will be the leading state in India in total food grains production, with a production of 49455 thousand tonnes from an area of 19982 thousand hectare with 2718 kg/ha yield during year 2020.