MODELLING AND PREDICTING OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF ONION CROP IN ANDHRA PRADESH

R. SHAFIYA¹, G. MOHAN NAIDU², G.M. RISHITHA³, S. GOVINDA RAO⁴*
¹Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati, 517502, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, 522034, India
²Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati, 517502, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, 522034, India
³Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, 632 014, Tamil Nadu, India
⁴Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, Agricultural College, Naira, 532185, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, 522034, India
* Corresponding Author : govinda.seepana@gmail.com

Received : 03-09-2022     Accepted : 27-09-2022     Published : 30-09-2022
Volume : 14     Issue : 9       Pages : 11661 - 11664
Int J Agr Sci 14.9 (2022):11661-11664

Keywords : Area, Productivity, Time series models, Ljung-Box Q test, RMSE and MAE
Academic Editor : Amit Anil Shahane
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Authors are thankful to Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati, 517502, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, 522034, Andhra Pradesh, India. Authors are thankful to Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, 632 014, Tamil Nadu, India and Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, Agricultural College, Naira, 532185, India
Author Contribution : All authors equally contributed

Onion (Allium cepa L) is one of the important condiments widely used year-round in all households. The present study attempted to analyze the trends and forecasts in area, production and productivity of onion (Allium cepa L) crop grown during the period 1978-79 to 2017-18 in Andhra Pradesh. Trends and forecasts in area, production and productivity were studied using different linear, non-linear and time series models. Based on model selection criteria such RMSE and MAE, cubic, ARIMA (2, 1, 1), and ARIMA (2, 0, 1) models were chosen to fit the trends and forecasts in area, production, and productivity. The forecasted values of area and production of onion had shown an increasing trend, while productivity had a slightly fluctuating trend

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